DOUGLAS COSTA — Player Analysis
The Flash is back home. The transfer story of the season so far in Brazil: Douglas Costa has returned to his childhood club Grêmio. The greatest South American transfer in years. The winger decided to leave Juventus in order to stay close to his family and fulfill his childhood dream of winning an important title with Grêmio.
What’s impressive here is that he’s just 30 years old and could keep playing in the European elite. This kind of transfer tends to happen as players reach the twilight of their careers. Not Douglas Costa. He not only decided not to fulfill his contract with the Italian giants, as he also rejected the possibility of joining Atletico Madrid, another massive interested party. Sacrificing the chance to play in another UEFA Champions League to play in the Copa Sudamericana. And he’s doing it while lowering his wage by about 70%. During his presentation, it was moving to see tears coming to his eyes when Douglas stepped on the Arena do Grêmio pitch for the first time.
It goes deeper than that, of course. He’s been struggling with injuries for years now and does not want to miss out on the 2022 World Cup. Grêmio’s physical and physiology departments have reportedly developed a plan to keep Douglas in top form and considering the physical demands in South America are lower than in Europe it looks promising. Moreover, he’s well above the average level of the continent and will certainly stand out. And doing it in the club he has always called his home should help too. Especially considering how highly the Brazilian national team coach, Tite, rates him. Another encouraging fact is that Pedro Geromel was called up to the 2018 World Cup while playing at Grêmio.
So, in this piece I analyse Douglas Costa as a player, how he has played in recent years and how he could fit into Tiago Nunes’ team. Almost all data used here is from FBRef and I filled in some gaps with info from Grêmiopédia and WyScout.
Let’s start by tackling the elephant in the room: his physical struggles. It’s well known that Douglas had his career hindered by a large amount of injuries, but how big was that impact? Below, I made a graph showing how many minutes he played per season since his debut in 2008. The colours represent his four clubs: Grêmio, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayern München and Juventus.
He only broke the 2000 minutes boundary four times in more than a decade and had a huge decline in the last three seasons, averaging 1685 minutes per season across his career. It’s also interesting to see that in his first, and only so far, full season with Grêmio’s senior squad, 2009, he already played more minutes than in any of his last three seasons. To add some more context, this is how many minutes some players that FBRef rates as similar to him played in 2020/21:
- Dejan Kulusevski (Juventus) - 2741 minutes
- Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) - 2963 min.
- Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) - 2275 min.
- Ángel Di María (PSG) - 2931 min.
Quite a considerable gap. And to take things further, Grêmio’s starting right-winger, Alisson, played 3770 in the 2020 season. And Pepê, the left-winger, played outrageous 4590 minutes across 57 matches, which is even more than what most goalkeepers in Europe will ever play in a single season. The Brazilian schedule is ridiculously packed and should prove to be a big challenge.
Now to go a bit deeper into that I selected only the seasons from 2015/16 onwards, as FBRef provides some broader data regarding playtime for these seasons and that was exactly when he reached his top involvement and since then we can see the massive drop in playtime.
Douglas was actually doing fine, until he had a massive drop. He even started to be taken off earlier in the few matches he started. And completing one match per season for three seasons is truly alarming.
Let’s go back to Ángel Di María to see how he fared:
More like what you’d expect from an important player. The difference is huge and surely raises concern.
Does this mean Costa is going to struggle at Grêmio? Of course not. But it does bring doubts as to how much involvement he will be able to get. He will obviously play the most important matches, but may get spared frequently and he certainly won’t play the Pepê part of “I don’t want to miss any match at all”. Still, as I mentioned earlier, Grêmio are taking this matter very seriously and specially devised an individual program to have the best of him and avoid injuries. And then again, the physical in-game demand here is lower than in Europe, despite the insane schedule. He’s currently taking part in a sort of an individual pre-season as he hasn’t played since February, in the FIFA Club World Cup, and is expected to be ready for his debut before the end of June. Only then we’ll be able to see if this bitter past is truly behind him.
To properly start with his football, let’s stay at the physical area. The Flash nickname came off his tremendous bursts of pace and his insane acceleration, reaching top speed in… well, in a flash, and leaving defenders to dust. However, age comes to us all and the injuries surely had their impacts too, so he’s not the same nearly unbeatable speeder he once was. Which is not to say he suddenly became a slow player. Douglas still counts on his pace as a helpful weapon to beat his markers and will surely create danger on the break.
Most impressive though, is his agility. Costa is capable of changing directions strikingly fast and his ridiculously quick feet make it a nightmare for defenders to try to take the ball from him.
Furthermore, he’s quite strong, now much more robust than the slim youngster who left the club in 2010. Another asset that boosts his ball retention prowess, allowing him to better shield the ball and win more physical duels.
Not wandering that far, let’s move on to his most distinct qualities: dribbling and ball-carrying. Douglas’ flair and 1v1 excellence are his banner, a tricky winger who beats markers at will, wreaking havoc at opposing defenses. Youtube is full of compilations of him destroying defenders with his dribbling, not to mention his classic elástico. He’s arguably very pleasant to watch.
Now, let’s see how Costa compared to other attackers in Europe’s top 5 leagues in terms of dribbles and carries in recent years. For this one and other vizzes here I used data from 2017/18 to 2019/20, basically his time at Juventus, for a few reasons. First, because I thought it best to go for a broader look into a player who has not played so much in recent years, thus including more than one season. He had his huge drop in playtime in 2018/19 so it was interesting to include his last season with a regular amount of minutes and then more recent ones. Second, because in 2020/21 he played too few minutes to consider. And third, because FBRef only offers advanced data from 2017/18 onwards, otherwise I would’ve considered his first spell at Bayern.
These are his main assets and you can see he had a large volume of them, ranking high across Europe for all metrics. Again, he is a fantastic dribbler and tends to always look for the 1v1 situation, this way he was one of the attackers with most dribbles per 90 in the top 5 leagues during these three seasons. Douglas is so good at dribbling that you often see defenders doubling down on him, and he’s still able to evade them, with masterful skill and flair. Not only that, he also ranked quite high for most shot-creating dribbles, specially in 17/18, displaying some nice influence with those and highlighting how capable he is of creating chances by beating defenders.
So, a significant part of Costa’s game is ball-carrying which proves to offer a huge contribution to ball progression. For both Bayern and Juventus he often dropped deep to receive and help progress the ball from there, not only with carries but also with passes as we’ll see later . And he does it all over the pitch, mind you. If Douglas has space to carry the ball into he will. Thus he was close to the top for most progressive carries per 90 and total distance traveled while carrying the ball (for which he was actually 2nd in 18/19). Furthermore, he was also near the top for most carries into the final third, highlighting his ball progression contribution, and ranked quite high for carries into the penalty area as well.
Another thing that should be mentioned regarding his technical prowess is his superb first touch. Not only does he enjoy a perfect ball control, but he is also capable of directing the ball at his will immediately upon receiving and thus taking off markers right away. Moreover, he does fairly well on his right foot and mostly seemed comfortable using it. He used to be happy to rely on it during most of his career, however during his last Bayern spell in 2020/21 he was actually reluctant to use it. And this hesitation and utmost preference for his left foot often made him waste some opportunities. It certainly could be related to a lack of confidence after coming back from injuries, but it does come by as a point to improve, or actually bring back to normal. Still, he is spectacularly technically gifted. Not to mention his classic outside of the boot magic.
As mentioned above, Douglas’ contribution to ball progression is not limited to his carries, as he also offers a nice volume of progressive passes. At both Bayern and Juventus he tended to drop back to receive during buildup, linking up well with his teammates and offering good options to progress. As seen below he was among the attackers with most passes per 90 in the top 5 leagues, underlining his involvement in possession. And he’s actually a very good passer, capable of precise deliveries even under pressure and of varying ranges.
Thus, he ranked really high for most progressive passes and passes into the penalty area. And ranked well for most passes into the final third as well, stressing the point of his deeper involvement. In addition, he also played a fair volume of long passes, as he often inverted play from one wing to another, and with good accuracy.
Costa’s passing quality is not restricted to buildup and ball progression, as he creates loads of chances this way too. Boosting very good vision and accuracy he often delivers killer passes spotting teammates in dangerous positions. This way, he was among the attackers with most expected assists and key passes per 90 in the top 5 leagues.
Here I also added his shot-creating and goal-creating actions, both of which he ranked really high for, where his afore-mentioned shot-creating dribbles are also included. This highlights how creative and influential in attack he can be. When fully fit he was one of the best wide creators in world football. Unfortunately staying fully fit has been a problem recently, but let’s hope things change for the better and he finds his feet again.
Another important asset in his assist game is his crossing. Douglas is a frequent crosser, as seen below, from both sides of the pitch. And a very good one at that.
Here’s a compilation of a bit his playmaking and chance creation, also displaying some of his other qualities such as his dribbling:
Costa may be an elite creator but he is not a goalscorer. In fact he has never reached 10 goals in a single season. And as you can see below, he was close to being one of the attackers with least non-penalty expected goals per 90 in the big 5 leagues. He didn’t rank particularly high for most shots either.
While he may not be an exceptional finisher, he does hold some nice qualities in this regard. First, he is quite a good shooter from afar, which is considerably important considering he takes his fair share of long shots, as underlined above where he ranked among the players who tend to take shots from the longest distance from goal. Most of Douglas’ shots arise the same way, following a dribble, be it cutting inside from the right or bursting towards the back line from the left. And most of them from the edge of the box. Even if he’s not a clinical finisher, he excels in opening up space to shoot. Moreover, he’s capable of putting an impressive amount of power on the ball. So, you really can’t expect him to become Grêmio’s top scorer despite his obvious superiority in the continent, but I believe he shall finally break the 10 goals barrier.
And here’s another compilation. Now, of some of his shots and goals, once again giving us a taste of his dribbling skills and other qualities too:
So far along his career Costa has featured a lot on both wings, even if he seems most adept at the right side. And that’s where he played most of his games for Juventus, while at Bayern he was mostly used on the left. At both clubs, besides his obvious attacking contribution, Douglas was actively involved in buildup and ball progression, dropping to receive and linkup. And that made him one of the attackers with most on-the-ball actions in the attacking third per 90 in the top 5 leagues. However, here we can highlight an interesting trend: he does not get into the box much often. It’s perceivable watching his games that he is actually most active around it. This and his preference for long shots helped to rank him lower for touches inside the attacking penalty area. He was quite low down the ladder in 2018/19.
In fact, he averaged more touches per 90 in the defensive third than in the attacking penalty area.
In Tite’s Brazil though, he had far less involvement in buildup. Normally playing on the right of the attack, he was mostly involved in the attacking third, creating chances from 1v1 situations on the wing.
Defensively, there were two different situations considering the last four seasons. At Juventus he had to drop back and join the second line at the right-hand side. Always willing to track back. At Bayern 20/21 though, he mostly stayed at the last line beside the striker during the defensive phase. On the other hand, as Bayern are quite the intense pressers, he had much more high pressing duties. Even if Costa himself is not an especially efficient presser, he fulfilled his role.
So how is he going to play at Grêmio? Well, Tiago Nunes has been deploying a 4–3–3 system since he took charge a few months ago and Douglas is probably going to feature mostly as a right winger here. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him deployed as of the 8s to be honest, or if some changes were made to accommodate him as a 10 or as a second striker at times. I mean, Grêmio have great depth on the wings but not so much in the middle and Douglas seems capable of fulfilling these duties in Brazil. Could actually happen.
Considering recent selections the preferred starting XI should look a bit like this:
Then again, the left wing spot is taken by the young Ferreira, there are quite a few good options for the right wing, such as former starter Alisson, who’s out injured, and academy graduates Leo Chu and Jhonata Robert who have left good impressions. While at the middle of the pitch, Tiago Nunes still hasn’t settled on a reliable partner for Matheus. Things could move towards a more “centralized” Douglas Costa.
Even as winger he’s probably going to get more involved in the build up phase than the current wingers do, with the possible exception of Alisson who has yet to play under Nunes. Until now they’ve been seeing the ball almost exclusively in the final third. He is certainly going to drift inside a lot too and create some danger from the edge of the box, especially from the right channel, and bring some threats to zone 14 as well, be it with long shots, killer passes or dribbles into the box.
A promising setup is the triangle on the right with Matheus Henrique and his ex-Bayern teammate Rafinha or youngster Vanderson. This association is certain to generate chances galore, with overlaps, underlaps and quick exchanges, all three/four of them being exceptionally technically gifted. In fact, Vanderson, who’s more of a bombarding full-back than Rafinha, has been one of Grêmio’s main threats when playing and Matheus has enjoyed much more attacking freedom under Tiago and thus has been offering impressive offensive contributions this season, with creative passes, dangerous ball carries and a few goals too. Combining Douglas Costa with these guys seems quite interesting.
On defense, Grêmio assume a 4–4–2 shape where Matheus Henrique joins Diego Souza in the forward line and look to press relatively high. I believe Tiago Nunes could put less defensive responsibilities on Douglas to ask less of his body and keep him fit for when he’s most needed. How? Possibly fitting him in beside Diego Souza in the 4–4–2 defensive shape with Matheus Henrique slotting in on the right side, thus freeing Costa of some tracking back. He would often be asked to press opposing defenders high but as we’ve seen he’s quite used to that and has just come from one of the best high pressing sides in world football. In fact, during this last term Bayern often did something similar with Muller retreating to defend while Douglas stayed forward beside Lewandowski.
Costa is probably going to be taking set-pieces too. He has been the preferred corner taker at both Juventus and Bayern, with precise deliveries, and is not a bad free-kick taker. He has taken some penalties as well during his career and could be thus really helpful as Grêmio are known to struggle with their penalties.
So, yes, the excitement is well deserved. The injury history is certainly a cause for concern, but if Grêmio do succeed in keeping Douglas fit, they’ve got an immeasurable asset, a player who should be miles above the average level of the continent and could surely lead them to success. A ridiculous piece of business, really.
To finish, a really short clip of Douglas Costa at his best (and wearing blue):
Electrifying.
Lucas Barth
